The 28,500 US Armed Forces personnel in South Korea are vastly outnumbered by North Korean forces, as well as ROK forces that will conduct the overwhelming majority of the fighting. Unlike every conflict since the last Korean War, we will not be able to build up our forces prior to the start of hostilities. US reinforcements will take days to months to arrive in theater, as will supplies and equipment. When they do arrive, they may well find their bases subject to attack by conventional or chemical weapons, which will further delay their entry into the war.
US leadership, airpower, counterfire, and ISR are critical to the initial stages of the conflict, particularly in the defense of Seoul, the political, economic, and cultural center of South Korea that is home to 25 million people, half the nation’s population. Unfortunately, North Korean artillery, rockets, and missiles that threaten the capital will take days to eliminate, even under ideal conditions. During that time an enormous casualty and evacuee crisis will develop and include over a hundred thousand non-combatant Americans, many of who will turn to US forces to get off the peninsula.
The defense of South Korea and evacuation of US citizens will be significantly complicated by the expected North Korean use of chemical munitions and potential employment of nuclear weapons. Asymmetric North Korean capabilities will also pose severe challenges, including cyber attacks against US-ROK command and control nodes. North Korean Special Forces, among the largest in the world, will create a second front in the rear. The North Korean submarine force, although technically inferior, is also among the world’s largest and capable of sinking allied vessels, sowing mines, and inserting Special Forces units.
US ISR capabilities that are critical to finding targets will be limited by hardened and concealed North Korean underground facilities, the lack of omnipresent overhead imagery satellites, mobile North Korean weapon systems that can rapidly relocate (including the KN-08 and KN-14 ICBMs), and terrain. Much of North Korea is mountainous, which limits distant visual reconnaissance by airborne platforms. Furthermore, a non-permissive air environment will drastically curtail the use of unmanned aerial vehicles that are ubiquitous in other theaters. ISR limitations, coupled with North Korean abilities to move, hide, or deeply shelter their assets, will significantly degrade our ability to find, fix, and finish many high priority targets at the onset of conflict. As such, it is very unlikely that a limited attack by the US would completely eliminate North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
This is not to include a chain reaction war with China and Russia vs Japan, USA, and South Korean forces. In the Middle East after the Trump visit, we find Saudi Arabia now declaring a possible war on Hezbollah and Lebanon. Syria is not over, there are the Russians to attend to and us backing the rebel forces there, Turkey and a war with the Kurds is possible too, but what side would we pick there, Serious war could break out between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
USA, Isreal, Jordan, Syrian rebels, Kurds, Saudi Arabia, UAR vs Yemen, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Lebanon, possibility Qatar, Turkey. NATO would get involved,
Ukraine: NATO, USA, EU, and Ukraine vs Russia.
China and the South China Sea?
A domino effect of a world war with an unstable president with nuclear weapons. If diplomacy is to work, the congress and senate must tie his hand. I think this is being seen now and is happening and the sooner and better in 2018.
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