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Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Regional GDP 2060, Analysis of World Regions and Their Potential Economic Setbacks

Calculations based on population and current trends in GDP over time.

Asia will be still the dominate factor in world GDP, China, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam are the big factors in this and still be if getting behind the trend in investing. Worries here are conflict over the South China Sea, North Korea and the peninsula. China will continue its growth through things like the New Silk Road it is building and it is way ahead in the USA as far as getting involved and planting economic seeds in Africa and South America taking advantage of the opportunities there. The Philippines has great potential for investment because of its large English speaking population. Its worry is the ISIS and Muslim elements in the south and the South China Sea disputes over sea lanes the same with Vietnam, Indonesia. All in which can be solved diplomatically through ASEAN. Cooperation between elements through BRIC, ASEAN and APEC, 3 major trading blocks where money will take front seat to conflict. Any conflict with Taiwan, North Korea and the South China Sea would be fruitless. This could be ignited by the USA playing its imperialistic world policing which would be counter productive. Key here is China and USA broker ship in these hot spots.

South Asia is a big prospect in becoming and economic power house region. Problems are the nuclear proliferation between India and Pakistan, Taliban in Afghanistan next door, the conflict over Kashmir area and its water resources, radical Muslims that would like to take over India and spread that religious philosophy.

EU. Brexit is a poison coming from the right that is now hurting the British pound but will soon reverse course thanks to the younger vote, France and Germany are coming together to reinforce the EU and the EU currency is doing pretty well. The conflict in the Ukraine where Putin and Russia should let it be and solve the problem through regional electoral process instead of invasion would be better. Russia's goal is to break up the EU and NATO. The current administration is playing into their hands in this measure. The EU is taking in immigrants to replace their economic downfall in population growth is also a positive factor in its future growth.

North America. Will continue its progress in growth. Down falls are the current administrations muscle flexing, war banging drums, anti immigration policies, protectionism and the problem with open borders will effects trade and hinder global GDP. Canada will do better. Mexico already is getting large amounts of foreign investment in turn raising the peso.

Middle East is just one big Islamic family soap opera going back centuries. Christians want to suppress Islam and Islam the same, both want to take over the world and fill their coffers. Point this is senseless and one reason the world must come together as one in sense of economics and multicultural mixing, Free thought, free spirit, free markets, open borders and open global society. The Middle East survives on life support with oil. Saudi Arabia is taking lead in diversification of its economy and should be a model for the rest of the reason. I give the UAE kudos for this to, ISIS is almost destroyed with small pockets popping up here and now. A deal should be brokered between Russia, the UN and the USA to solve the Syrian region back on track in negotiation a settlement with Assad and the Syrian rebels should be solved. Turkey needs to lay off the Kurds, in which ISIS would still be strong if not for their fighting and allying with the coalition forces. Oil prices must be suppressed because of a lot of this conflict Renewable would be the best bet, and the desert here might have the answer through solar energy farms. In Afghanistan, the Taliban needs to be eradicated but is propped up by the opium addiction around the world.

Africa is the next big labor force of the world and China and India are way ahead in investment in these area in the using this to its max through cheap labor forces with plenty of people to boot and the great natural resource development on the continent. Some issues are the AIDS epidemic, corruption, Muslim extremism, civil wars, etc. Africa has a lot of potential but needs a lot of social changes and integration of all the economies into a free trade zone, open borders and free trade would solve a lot of these problems.

South America. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia are big factors in this region. Venezuela is a problem and hopefully the people will change it. I see Colombian and Brazilian involvement in saving this region. South America is pretty well settled, but Venezuela. Things will be good in this region though drug cartels and gangs are still a problem in this area.

Oceania. Australia dominates this area. Australia is taking in a lot of Asian immigrants, so this is a good thing for it will benefit from the Asian area growths. Well here we are and the figures. Comments are welcome. My email is frockman232@gmail.com if you want.

GDP's 2060

Asia                   $244 trillion       41%
South Asia          $96 trillion        16%
EU                       $72 trillion        12%
N. America         $69 trillion         12%
Middle East        $42 trillion           7%
Africa                  $37 trillion           6%
S. America          $33 trillion           5%
Oceania                $5 trillion            1%

World growth from 2016-2060 will go from $108 trillion to $598 trillion in this time period. Get behind the curb, stay away from toxic people, think free, and support free trade for this growth.

Again comments are welcome for cyber debate.





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